fridgepunk: Queen Elizabeth X of Great Britain, guns akimbo and with the legend "keep calm and carry on" in white. (Keep Calm)
[personal profile] fridgepunk
As is traditional when someone sees the exit polls not go there way, I am going to explain why it's totally not as bad as it looks from the exit polls because the exit polls of OBVIOUSLY completely wrong (unlike all the other times when they're fairly accurate):

To put things in context, the exit polls at this point are giving the Tories 10 MPs short of a majority, and the Limp Dems 10 MPs, so we're possibly fucked for another 5 years.

However, the SNP are playing them down, and they're right to do so; The exit polls are giving them ALL BUT ONE of the Scottish Westminster seats.

This is unlikely given that Glasgow Central and North tend to go Labour and I doubt that'll change, and I'd be really surprised if the fucking Scottish borders went to the SNP.

What I suspect has happened is that Exit Polls work when you can reasonably extrapolate from a hundred or so seats to general trends, and in this election SO MUCH hangs on votes being split by third parties AND fourth, fifth, or even sixth parties, who are gonna get notable amounts of seats and the fine differences in the specific spread of the vote across all of those parties in individual consituencies is so important this year that generalisations are gonna be wonky.
As a test of this hypothesis, watch out for the Glasgow seats, and the scottish border seats of "Dumfries and Galloway", "Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale" and "Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk".

If those go... Are SNP yellow? Really? Weren't libdems yellow? With the pissbird logo and all?

Anyway, if those seats all go yellow, then the exit polls are right and we're all fucked.

Indeed, I'd be surprised if the English border seats don't also go SNP if they get all but one of the scottish seats, leading to the SNP getting >100% of the seats they actually stood candidates in. And it should be pointed out that there's a few seats in scotland outside of those heavy Labour friendly areas where the Libdems had a majority and I'd be surprised if those didn't go Labour rather than SNP.

So take the projections with a pinch of salt.

Also: Squee for the Greens getting another MP if the Exit Polls are right! Woo!

Date: 2015-05-08 01:21 pm (UTC)
spiralsheep: Flowers (skywardprodigal Cog Flowers)
From: [personal profile] spiralsheep
The SNP are healthy piss yellow. The LibDems are urinary infection yellow.

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