8 May 2015

fridgepunk: Queen Elizabeth X of Great Britain, guns akimbo and with the legend "keep calm and carry on" in white. (Keep Calm)
As is traditional when someone sees the exit polls not go there way, I am going to explain why it's totally not as bad as it looks from the exit polls because the exit polls of OBVIOUSLY completely wrong (unlike all the other times when they're fairly accurate):

To put things in context, the exit polls at this point are giving the Tories 10 MPs short of a majority, and the Limp Dems 10 MPs, so we're possibly fucked for another 5 years.

However, the SNP are playing them down, and they're right to do so; The exit polls are giving them ALL BUT ONE of the Scottish Westminster seats.

This is unlikely given that Glasgow Central and North tend to go Labour and I doubt that'll change, and I'd be really surprised if the fucking Scottish borders went to the SNP.

What I suspect has happened is that Exit Polls work when you can reasonably extrapolate from a hundred or so seats to general trends, and in this election SO MUCH hangs on votes being split by third parties AND fourth, fifth, or even sixth parties, who are gonna get notable amounts of seats and the fine differences in the specific spread of the vote across all of those parties in individual consituencies is so important this year that generalisations are gonna be wonky.
As a test of this hypothesis, watch out for the Glasgow seats, and the scottish border seats of "Dumfries and Galloway", "Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale" and "Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk".

If those go... Are SNP yellow? Really? Weren't libdems yellow? With the pissbird logo and all?

Anyway, if those seats all go yellow, then the exit polls are right and we're all fucked.

Indeed, I'd be surprised if the English border seats don't also go SNP if they get all but one of the scottish seats, leading to the SNP getting >100% of the seats they actually stood candidates in. And it should be pointed out that there's a few seats in scotland outside of those heavy Labour friendly areas where the Libdems had a majority and I'd be surprised if those didn't go Labour rather than SNP.

So take the projections with a pinch of salt.

Also: Squee for the Greens getting another MP if the Exit Polls are right! Woo!
fridgepunk: (KITTENSES!!!)
Scotland has managed to return their one and only Tory MP, and left only one libdem and one Labour MP.

In Scotland's defense, that seems to have only happened because the scottish labour voters acted as a spoiler for the SNP vote allowing the Tory MP to sneak back in.

As of right fucking now there's 17 seats left to declare and the tories are 8 seats from a barest of slim majorities.

This means a few things:

One, the country is a little bit fucked, as in we may exit the EU which would have the glorious effect of crashing our economy as the rest of europe shuts us out of 90% of our foreign trade.

Two, the anti-blairite wing (i.e. the lefter wing) of the labour party has effectively lost this election, and thus there's going to be a return of the Torier-than-thou Mandelson types to power in the Labour party (AKA the bit of the party that tried to hound Mo Mowlem out of the party by spreading rumors that her brain cancer was affecting her judgement), which means the main opposition is effectively Charybdis to the Tories' Scylla at this point.

Even worse than that is that it'll be fairly easy for Labour to win the next election - the electoral tea leaves can more easily tell where UKIP or the SNP are going to have major effects on the vote, and you're not going to have as strong a Libdem presence next time now they're a distant 4th party in UK politics, they were coasting on inertia as it wasn't entirely clear that it was going to be a choice between Labour or the Tories in a lot of the old Lib Dem seats, so they were spoiling Labour's vote more than they are likely to next time. Which given how close a lot of the Tory wins this time were and how slim their majority can be, means that Labour should be fairly easily able to get a majority next time, even if their leader is an actual toad, or Nigel Farage (but I repeat myself).

Find a comfortable crash helmet, because you're gonna need to wear it for the next decade, at least.

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